According to the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) 2012 World Energy Outlook (WEO), the share of nuclear energy in the global power generation mix should remain stable on the 2035 horizon, while renewables are projected to increase sevenfold. Overall, global electricity demand will grow by 2.2% per year, and nearly 80% of this additional demand projected to come from non-OECD countries*.
Nuclear energy’s share of power generation should be constant, the 2012 WEO estimates the overall increase in the global nuclear capacity at 48%, slightly lower than last year’s projections. This change is due mainly to the inclusion of the potential new Japanese energy strategy. The executive summary notes, however, “Shifting away from nuclear power can have significant implications for a country’s spending on imports of fossil fuels, for electricity prices and for the level of effort needed to meet climate targets.” Nuclear output is expected to grow in absolute terms, notably by expanded generation in China, South Korea, India and Russia. The projections for new nuclear builds remain strong with an estimated additional 312 GW due over the next two decades, nearly one-third to be added in China, which will entail an average of 13 GW of nuclear new build to be commissioned each year.
By 2035 renewables are expected to account for 15% of energy demand, accounting for almost one-third of total electricity output. Global renewable capacity, excluding hydroelectric, is projected at 2,085GW by 2035, meaning an average of 95GW of new capacity is expected to be installed each year, largely due to the expansion of wind and solar power.
Additionally, the investment that will be necessary for nuclear power plants is expected to be $942 billion** over the 2012-2035 period, an annual investment of $41 billion**. Renewable power generation (including hydro) will require an approximate cumulative investment of $4,450 billon** from 2012 until 2035, equating to an average annual investment of $195 billon**. Overall, the WEO projects worldwide electricity prices to increase by 15% on average in real terms from 2012-2035.
*List of OCED countries http://www.oecd.org/general/listofoecdmembercountries-ratificationoftheconventionontheoecd.htm
** Value indicated in 2011 dollars